Prohlížíte si archiv čtvrtek 13. června 2024

Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Jun 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
13 Jun 2024	167	006
14 Jun 2024	169	003
15 Jun 2024	171	003

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with C-class flares and one M-class flare. The strongest flare was an M1.2 flare peaking at 22:46 UTC on June 12, associated with NOAA AR 3711 (beta). There are currently ten active regions on the solar disk, all with magnetic configuration beta except NOAA AR 3708 (alpha). NOAA AR 3702 is currently rotating behind the west limb. NOAA AR 3715 and 3716 have rotated on disk from the north-east limb. NOAA AR 3714 has emerged in the north-east quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and a chance of M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A faint halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first detected around 16:12 UTC on June 12 in SOHO/LASCO-C2. It is most likely backsided and it is not expected to have an impact on Earth. A faint partial halo CME was first detected around 23:32 UTC on June 12 in SOHO/LASCO-C2. It is most probably associated with the M1.2 flare from NOAA AR 3711. It may have an Earth-directed component, but further analysis is ongoing, pending the availability of coronagraph data. A filament eruption was detected in the south-east quadrant around 12:24 UTC on June 12 in SDO/AIA 304 data. It may have an Earth-directed component, but further analysis is ongoing, pending the availability of coronagraph data. A filament eruption was detected in the north-east quadrant around 06:30 UTC on June 13 in SDO/AIA 304 data. This event will be analysed when data become available.

Koronální díra

An equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole is crossing the central meridian. The associated high speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth starting from June 16.

Solární bouře

The Earth is inside the slow solar wind, with speed values ranging from 327 km/s to 374 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field around 4 nT. The Bz component varied between -4 nT and 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet levels (NOAA Kp between 0 and 2). Geomagnetic conditions were locally at quiet to unsettled levels (K BEL between 0 and 3). Quiet conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours but still near the threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold level and decrease over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 157, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 12 Jun 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	165
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Odhadovaný Ap	004
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	118 - Na základě 22 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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