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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Jun 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
15 Jun 2024	168	007
16 Jun 2024	170	016
17 Jun 2024	172	008

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with multiple C-class flares and one M-class flare. The strongest flare was an M1.3 flare peaking at 06:26 UTC on June 15, associated with NOAA AR 3712 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently seven active regions on the solar disk, with NOAA AR 3712 (beta- gamma-delta) being the most complex one. NOAA AR 3702 has rotated behind the west limb. NOAA AR 3717 has emerged in the north-west quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable and a small chance of X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 304 data around 09:06 UTC on June 14, in the south-west quadrant. No associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was found in the available coronagraph imagery. A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 304 data around 21:48 UTC on June 14 in the north-east quadrant, near the central meridian. No associated CME is currently found in the available coronagraph imagery, but further analysis is ongoing. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

The equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole has fully crossed the central meridian. The associated high-speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth starting from June 16.

Solární bouře

A shock was detected in the solar wind data (DSCOVR and ACE) around 11:05 UTC on June 15. The interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 6 nT to 14 nT, the Bz component from -5 nT to -11 nT and the solar wind speed jumped from 360 km/s to 437 km/s and in-creased up to 460 km/s. The solar wind density at the shock increased from 3.75 ppcc to 9.9 ppcc. The shock could be related to an early interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) arrival, probably associated with the CME detected at 23:32 UTC on June 12. Slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Further enhancements in the solar wind may be expected starting from June 16 due to another ICME arrival and the high-speed stream arrival from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet levels (NOAA Kp between 0 and 2). Geomagnetic conditions were locally at quiet to unsettled levels (K BEL between 0 and 3). Mostly quiet to active conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, due to the arrival of the glancing blow of the coronal mass ejection observed at 23:32 UTC on June 12 and the high- speed stream arrival from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level and decrease over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 148, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 14 Jun 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	169
10cm sluneční tok	169
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	006
Odhadovaný Ap	005
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	158 - Na základě 19 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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