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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Jun 18 1232 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
18 Jun 2024	180	017
19 Jun 2024	180	010
20 Jun 2024	180	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with multiple C-class flares and one M-class flare. The strongest flare was an M1.4 flare, which began at 19:57 UTC and peaked at 20:35 UTC on June 17, and originating from NOAA active region 3711. The most complex sunspot region NOAA-AR 3712 (beta-gamma- delta) produced several C-class flare. There are currently several sunspot groups on the solar disk, with NOAA AR 3711 and 3712 (beta-gamma-delta) showing the most flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable and a small chance of X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed by SOHO/LASCO-C2 at 11:00 UTC on June 17, with a projected speed ranging from 500 km/s to 700 km/s. This halo-CME was likely due to several CMEs occurring simultaneously. The CME directed southwest is associated with the M1.6 flare from NOAA active region 3712, which peaked at 10:46 UTC on June 17. The other parts of the halo CME appear to be on the far side of the Sun. Given the position of NOAA active region 3712 near the central meridian, and the south-southwest direction of the CME we expect at most an glacing glow reaching Earth, with relatively minor impact on Earth on Jun 20-21. Later, on June 17 at approximately 20:20 UTC another halo CME was observed by SOHO/LASCO-C2. This event likely resulted also from multiple CMEs erupting simultaneously. The southwest-directed part is associated with the M1.4 flare, which began at 19:57 UTC and peaked at 20:35 UTC on June 17, originating from NOAA active region 3711. The other component of the halo CME is believed to be on the far side of the Sun. Given NOAA active region 3711's position at longitude 56 on the west side, the associated westward CME is not expected to have an Earth-directed component.

Koronální díra

A large north mid-latitude north coronal hole with negative polarity is crossing the central meridian.

Solární bouře

Solar wind conditions were enhanced in the last 24 hours due to the expected arrival of the high-speed stream from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind speed increase up to 600 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was around 11 nT and the Bz component varied between -10.4 nT and 9.4 nT. The solar wind conditions are expected remain elevated for the following days.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were at unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 4, K BEL 4) due to the expected arrival of the high-speed stream from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole. Mostly nsettled conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level and decrease over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 144, na základě 08 stanic.

Solární indexy za 17 Jun 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	180
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	018
Odhadovaný Ap	016
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	140 - Na základě 24 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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