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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Jul 16 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
16 Jul 2024	243	012
17 Jul 2024	240	008
18 Jul 2024	235	016

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the past 24 hours with two M-class flares detected. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3744 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group no 96) emitted an M1.4 flare at 16 Jul 03:01 UTC and NOAA AR 3753 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group no 8) an M3.6 at 16 Jul 07:37 UTC. NOAA AR 3738 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania sunspot group no 85) retained its magnetic complexity but only emitted a C4 flare at 15 Jul 16:17 UTC. NOAA AR 3751 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group no 12) increased in size and complexity and produced the third brightest event of the past 24 hours, a C7 flare at 15 Jul 20:08 UTC. For the next 24 hours isolated M-class flare(s) are expected, either from NOAA AR 3751, 3753, 3744, or 3738.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

The negative polarity, northern Coronal Hole (CH) continued its crossing of the central meridian during the past 24 hours.

Solární bouře

During the past 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions featured the arrival of a glancing blow from a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) at 15 Jul 21:30 UTC. The SW speed increased from 290 to 390 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) increased from 1 to 18 nT as a result of the arrival. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -10 and 13 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly directed away from the Sun before the event and turned to mostly directed towards the Sun after the arrival. The SW conditions are expected to return to the slow SW regime in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

During the past 24 hours global geomagnetic conditions reached unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3 at 16 Jul 00:00-03:00 UTC and Kp 3+ at 16 Jul 03:00-06:00 UTC) because of a glancing blow delivered by a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Locally the impart was stronger as active conditions were registered (K BEL 4 at 16 Jul 00:00-03:00 UTC). As the glancing blow is expected to wane in the next 24 hours, only unsettled to quiet conditions are expected to register both globally and locally.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 285, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 15 Jul 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	275
10cm sluneční tok	233
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	008
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	242 - Na základě 26 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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