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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Jul 25 1301 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
25 Jul 2024	174	014
26 Jul 2024	173	008
27 Jul 2024	172	016

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was at moderate level during the last 24 hours, with few C-class flares and a M-class flare. The strongest flare was GOES M2.9 flare from NOAA active region (AR) 3751 which peaked at 17:21 UTC on Jul 24. During the flare, the source region (AR 3751) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Currently, NOAA AR 3762 is the most complex region on the disk (beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration), but it has only produced C-class flarings. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, possibly with few M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

The SOHO/LASCO coronagraph data are not yet available for the possible coronal mass ejection (CME) which was observed in the morning of Jul 24. It was reported yesterday and more information will be reported when corresponding coronagraphs are available. A CME was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 images around 17:30 UTC on Jul 24. This CME was associated with a M2.9 flare, which peaked at 17:21 UTC on Jul 24, produced by NOAA AR 3751 (S07 W71). Associted type II radio emissions were detected at 17:26 UTC during the flaring activity. It has an angular width of about 50 deg. It was followed by an another subsequent nearby CME which was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 images around 18:30 UTC on Jul 24. This CME was associated with a C6.8 flare, which peaked at 18:26 UTC on Jul 24, produced by NOAA AR 3759 (S07 W89). Associated type II radio emissions were detected at 18:26 UTC during the flaring activity. It has an angular width of about 80 deg and a projected speed of about 430 km/s (measured by CACTUS tool). It is strongly directed towards West but a glancing blow cannot be discarded on Jul 28-29. Another halo CME was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 images around 00:12 UTC on Jul 25. This CME was associated with C-class flaring produced by NOAA AR 3762 (S10 E06). It has a projected speed of about 460 km/s (measured by CACTUS tool). With its source region located closer to the central meridian, it is expected to impact the Earth on Jul 28-29. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

Solární bouře

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged between 300 km/s and 350 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -4 and 10 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 5 nT and 11 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours, unless the glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection that was observed lifting from the Sun on Jul 23 enhances the solar wind.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet (NOAA Kp 1 to 2) and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (K BEL 1 to 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours, unless the Earth experiences glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection that was observed lifting from the Sun on Jul 23.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux showed slight enhancements from 21:00 UTC on Jul 24 to 07:00 UTC on Jul 25, possibly associated to the flaring activities and halo coronal mass ejection from NOAA AR 3762, but it still remained below the threshold level. The flaring actvity from NOAA AR 3751 (S09 W74) also contributed to the above mentioned enhancements in proton flux. This AR is rotating to the W limb, and any major eruption from this same active region, during the next 24 hours, could be possibly associated with a proton event.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at low level, and it is expected to be at low to normal level in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 190, na základě 15 stanic.

Solární indexy za 24 Jul 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	190
10cm sluneční tok	175
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	007
Odhadovaný Ap	007
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	175 - Na základě 28 stanic

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