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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Jul 29 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
29 Jul 2024	219	007
30 Jul 2024	224	038
31 Jul 2024	229	056

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at high levels, with four M-class flares and one X-class flare. The strongest flare was an X1.5 flare peaking at 02:37 UTC on July 29, most likely associated either with NOAA AR 3764 (beta) or 3766 (beta). There are currently ten active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are NOAA ARs 3762, 3765 and 3767 (all beta-gamma-delta). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 15:10 UTC on July 28. Preliminary analysis suggests a velocity of around 600 km/s and a possible arrival time at Earth late on July 30, due to the expected interaction with an earlier halo CME which left the Sun around 02:36 UTC on July 28. Another faint partial halo CME was first observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 02:40 UTC on July 29, most likely associated with the X1.5 flare peaking at 02:37 UTC on July 29. A related type II Radio emission was reported, starting at 02:36 UTC, with an estimated velocity of 535 km/s. This CME might arrive at the Earth starting from July 31 mixed with the previously expected CME arrivals. Further analysis for both eruptions is ongoing.

Koronální díra

A northern, negative polarity coronal hole has started to cross the central meridian. A possible, mild high-speed stream associated with it could arrive at Earth starting from August 01.

Solární bouře

The Earth is inside the slow solar wind, with speed values ranging from 313 km/s to 434 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field between 1.5 nT and 6.5 nT. The Bz component varied between -5.5 nT and 4.5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with possible enhancements starting late on July 30.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly at quiet levels to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp between 0 and 3-). Geomagnetic conditions locally were mostly at unsettled levels (K BEL 3-). Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with major storm conditions possible starting late on July 30.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours, with an enhancement seen by GOES-18 between 18:40 and 23:30 UTC on July 28. It is expected to remain mostly below the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 211, na základě 24 stanic.

Solární indexy za 28 Jul 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	214
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	203 - Na základě 28 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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