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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Aug 03 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
03 Aug 2024	245	007
04 Aug 2024	242	011
05 Aug 2024	240	008

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at high levels, with eight M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M1.9 flare peaking at 07:30 UTC on August 03, from NOAA AR 3770 (beta-delta). There are currently thirteen numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are NOAA ARs 3765 and 3772 (both beta-gamma-delta). NOAA ARs 3763, 3764, 3765, 3766, 3770 and 3773 are currently rotating behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A large filament eruption was observed around 18:40 UTC on August 02 in AIA 304 data, in the sountwest quadrant. A prominence eruption was observed around 23:55 UTC on August 02 in AIA 304 data, in the east limb, near the equator. A second filament eruption was observed around 01:45 UTC on August 03 in AIA 304 data, in the northwest quadrant near NOAA AR 3770. No associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery for these events. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solární bouře

The solar wind conditions are returning to the slow solar wind regime, with speed values ranging from 330 km/s to 438 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field between 1 nT and 8.9 nT. The Bz component varied between -6.6 nT and 5.9 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector, with two negative intervals between 14:00-15:45 UTC and 18:00-21:45 UTC on August 02. Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with possible enhancements after UTC midday on August 04 due to the potential arrival of glancing blows from the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed on July 31.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2) with unsettled intervals (NOAA Kp 3) between 21:00-00:00 UTC on Augst 02 and 03:00-06:00 UTC on August 03. Geomagnetic conditions locally were mostly at quiet levels (K BEL 2), with unsettled intervals (K BEL 3) between 13:00-16:00 and 22:00-00:00 UTC on August 02, and 04:00-06:00 UTC on August 03. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with possible active intervals (NOAA Kp 2 to 4) are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours, due to a possible arrival of a glancing blow from the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed on July 31.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending new eruptive activity from the active regions near the west limb and the active regions clustered around NOAA AR 3766.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 219, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 02 Aug 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	247
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	012
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	240 - Na základě 23 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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