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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Aug 14 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
14 Aug 2024	252	010
15 Aug 2024	248	013
16 Aug 2024	244	008

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at high levels, with one X-class flare and 4 M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was a X1.11-flare, with peak time 06:40 UTC on August 14 and is associated with active region NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma- delta). The second largest flare was a M4.44-flare, with peak time 04:02 UTC on August 14 and is associated with active region NOAA AR 3777 (beta- gamma). There are currently 10 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3780 (beta-gamma-delta), NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta) and NOAA AR 3777 (beta-gamma) are the largest, most magnetically complex regions on disk and produced most of the flaring activity. NOAA AR 3777 is continuing to rotate over the west limb. The other regions were stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a chance for an X-class flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 10:12 UTC on August 13 and was associated with an eruption seen in SDO/AIA 193 and 304 at 07:28 UTC on August 13 in the south-west quadrant of the sun. A second CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 04:50 UTC on August 14 and was associated with a M4.44-flare, with peak time 04:02 UTC on August 14 and NOAA AR 3777. A third partial or possibly full halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 09:50 UTC on August 14 and was associated with a X1.11-flare, with peak time 06:40 UTC on August 14 and NOAA AR 3784. Further analysis of all 3 CMEs is ongoing.

Koronální díra

A negative polarity mid-latitude coronal hole is continuums to transit the central meridian in the northern hemisphere. The associated high-speed stream is expected to arrive to Earth around August 16.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions were under the waning influence of an ICME. The solar wind speed as measured by ACE varied between 366 km/s to 447 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field gently decreased from 15 nT to 3 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -7 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative. In the next 24 hours, slow solar wind conditions are expected.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to active (NOAA Kp 1 - 4 and K BEL 1 - 4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be a quiet to unsettled levels in the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 182, na základě 12 stanic.

Solární indexy za 13 Aug 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	260
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	016
Odhadovaný Ap	016
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	219 - Na základě 24 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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