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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Sep 01 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
01 Sep 2024	228	024
02 Sep 2024	230	017
03 Sep 2024	232	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours, with multiple C-class flares and two M-class flares detected. The largest flare was an M3.8, peaking at 13:02 UTC on August 31, associated with NOAA AR 3806 (beta-gamma class). Another M1.4 flare, peaking at 07:57 UTC on September 1, originated from an active region behind the east limb (S20E86) that is currently rotating onto the visible side of the disk. Low-level flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3799 (beta class), 3807 (beta-gamma class) and 3808 (beta class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares possible, and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters (from ACE and DSCOVR) reflected ongoing high-speed stream (HSS) influences. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength increased at the beginning of the period, reaching a maximum value of 14 nT before gradually decreasing to around 4 nT. The solar wind speed varied between 370 km/s and 430 km/s. The southward component of the IMF (Bz) reached a minimum of -11 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually return to slow solar wind conditions over the next days.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached minor storm levels globally (NOAA Kp = 5-) between 15:00 and 18:00 UTC on August 31. Locally, only active conditions were observed (K-Dourbes = 4). For the next 24 hours, mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected, with a chance of isolated active periods due to the ongoing HSS influence.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours, with possible enhancements in case of increased solar activity.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 183, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 31 Aug 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	232
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	026
Odhadovaný Ap	028
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	176 - Na základě 31 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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