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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Sep 15 1521 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
15 Sep 2024	173	021
16 Sep 2024	177	012
17 Sep 2024	180	008

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was high during the past 24 hours with an X4.5 flare registered at 14 Sep 15:29 UTC. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3825 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania sunspot group no 1) produced most of the flaring activity including the X-class flare. In the next 24 hours NOAA AR 3825 is expected to produce M-class flaring activity and there is a good chance of an X-class flare from the same AR.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO C2/SOHO and COR2/STEREO-A images as launced at 14 Sep 15:36 UTC. It is associated with the X4.5 flare of 14 Sep 15:29 and is expected to become geo-effective at the first half of 17 Sep.

Solární bouře

Solar Wind (SW) conditions were affected by the expected arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS) during the past 24 hours. The SW speed raised from 380 km/s to 580 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 4 and 10 nT during the past 24 hours. The North- South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -9 and 7 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed away from the Sun in the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to be affected by a glancing blow from the Coronal Mass Ejection launched at 13 Sep 01:30 UTC.

Geomagnetismus

The global geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to active (NOAA Kp 2 to 4+) during the past 24 hours. Locally the geomagnetic conditions where milder, registering quiet to active levels (K BEL 1 to 3). A glancing blow from a the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) of 13 Sep is expected to have a minor effect and the geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain at active levels.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, increased significantly but did not exceeded the 1000 pfu alert level. The increased levels are most likely linked to the X4.5 flare of 14 Sep 15:29 UTC and its associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the 10 pfu alert level in the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, registered values around the 1000 pfu threshold levels during the past 24 hours. More specifically the greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert level from 14 Sep 19:30 UTC to 15 Sep 00:50 UTC and again from 15 Sep 06:30 UTC to 06:50 UTC, and peaked to 2400 pfu at 15 Sep 06:40 UTC. For the next 24 hours the greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to gradually drop and hence remain below the alert level. The 24h electron fluence although increased, remained at normal levels (ie below the 5e7 pfu threshold) during the past 24 hours. For the next 24 hours it is expected to drop marginally.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 095, na základě 12 stanic.

Solární indexy za 14 Sep 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	172
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	017
Odhadovaný Ap	020
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	118 - Na základě 23 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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