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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Sep 30 1259 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
30 Sep 2024	200	011
01 Oct 2024	200	011
02 Oct 2024	199	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

The solar flaring activity was at moderate level during the last 24 hours, with few C-class flares and three M-class flares. The strongest flare was GOES M1.8 flare from NOAA active region (AR) 3842 which peaked at 14:24 UTC on Sep 29. During the flare, the source region (AR 3842) of the flare had beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. NOAA AR 3842 is the most complex region on the disk (beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, possibly with few M-class flares and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

Presently available observations indicate a coronal mass ejection (CME) on the East limb, which was first observed on SOHO/LASCO coronograph images starting around 03:12 UTC on Sep 30 (detected by CACTUS tool), with an angular width of about 104 deg. This CME was having the source region close to the East limb, although very faint on- disk CME signatures are also observed. Accordingly, glancing blow related to this shock could be expected, with a very low probability, on Oct 03. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were disturbed under the influence of high speed streams (HSSs) from the negative polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Sep 26. The solar wind speed ranged between 310 km/s to 530 km/s. The North- South component (Bz) ranged between -12 and 13 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 2 nT to 15 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect a gradual transition from fast to slow solar wind.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 4), due to the arrival of high speed sptream from the coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Sep 26. Quiet to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 177, na základě 11 stanic.

Solární indexy za 29 Sep 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	197
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	016
Odhadovaný Ap	017
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	159 - Na základě 23 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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