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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Oct 20 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
20 Oct 2024	161	019
21 Oct 2024	165	022
22 Oct 2024	165	016

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare identified. The largest flare was a M1.7 flare (SIDC Flare 2358) peaking on October 19 at 14:34 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 283 (NOAA Active Region 3854). A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 285 and 288 (resp. NOAA Active Region 3856 and 3859) are the most complex (beta-gamma). Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and M-class flares possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Solární bouře

The solar wind at the Earth is slow. The speeds temporarily increased yesterday evening from around 400 km/s to 470 km/s and is now back around 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was around 7 nT with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -6 nT. The solar wind speed may become slightly enhanced on 21 OCT, due to the potential arrival of the high-speed stream (HSS).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active globally (NOAA Kp 4) and quiet to minor storm locally (K Belgium 5) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain unsettled to active due to a high-speed stream arrival of the Coronal Hole that crossed the central meridian on OCT 18.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 122, na základě 08 stanic.

Solární indexy za 19 Oct 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	162
AK Chambon La Forêt	034
AK Wingst	029
Odhadovaný Ap	031
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	135 - Na základě 14 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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