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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Nov 10 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
10 Nov 2024	211	013
11 Nov 2024	205	019
12 Nov 2024	200	013

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 2 M-class flares identified The largest flare was a M4.2 flare (SIDC Flare 2570) peaking on November 10 at 00:15 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Regions 3859, 3889). A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883) and SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3889) are the most magnetically complex active region (beta-gamma-delta) on disk and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 303 (NOAA Active Region 3881) and SIDC Sunspot Group 302 (NOAA Active Region 3879) have started to rotate over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at high levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a small chance for an X-class flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Further analysis of the CME detected in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 15:36 UTC on November 08, shows no impact at Earth is expected.

Koronální díra

A positive polarity low latitude coronal hole is continuing to transition the central meridian. A high-speed stream associated with this coronal hole is expected to impact the earth on November 12.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were under the influence of an ICME and possible influence of a high-speed stream. The interplanetary magnetic field B, reached a maximum value of 13 nT with a minimum Bz of -11 nT. The solar wind velocity varied between 375 km/s to around 418 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) until switching over to the negative sector around 03:30 UTC on November 10. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached minor storm levels locally and globally (K BEL 5 and Kp 5). Minor geomagnetic storm conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 169, na základě 05 stanic.

Solární indexy za 09 Nov 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	221
AK Chambon La Forêt	044
AK Wingst	028
Odhadovaný Ap	032
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	161 - Na základě 08 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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