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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Nov 21 1236 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
21 Nov 2024	166	005
22 Nov 2024	169	014
23 Nov 2024	170	006

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a long duration M1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 2669) peaking on November 20 at 19:48 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 316 (NOAA Active Region 3897), which has now rotated over the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 298 and 318 (NOAA Active Regions 3901 and 3898, respectively) also produced C-class flares. These two regions along with SIDC Sunspot Group 317 (NOAA Active Region 3896) are the most complex regions on disk. A new region rotated over the south east solar limb and was numbered as SIDC Sunspot Group 249 (NOAA Active Region 3902). The remaining regions were quiet and stable. The solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible with a chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A filament eruption was observed in the south-east quadrant in SDO AIA 304 from around 01:00 UTC on November 21. A related narrow coronal mass ejection (CME) to the south-east was observed in LASCO-C2 data and is currently being analysed. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Koronální díra

SIDC Coronal Hole 80 (negative polarity) continued to cross the central meridian on November 20.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions predominantly reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 and 10nT, with a minimum Bz of -7 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 360 km/s and 390 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle switched from being mostly in the positive sector to being mostly in the negative sector from 21:35 UTC November 20. The solar wind speed is expected to become slightly elevated over the next 24 hours due to the possible high-speed stream influence, associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 79, which began to cross the central meridian on November 18.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Generally quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with possible isolated active conditions due to any high-speed stream influence.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to continue to be below this threshold over the 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 109, na základě 09 stanic.

Solární indexy za 20 Nov 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	181
10cm sluneční tok	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	120 - Na základě 20 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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