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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Dec 11 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
11 Dec 2024	176	008
12 Dec 2024	176	010
13 Dec 2024	178	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with three M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M2.7 flare peaking at 10:06 UTC on December 11, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 332 (NOAA Active Region 3920, magnetic type beta). There are currently six numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3917, magnetic type beta-gamma). SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3912, magnetic type beta-gamma) has rotated behind the west limb but may still exhibit flaring activity. SIDC Sunspot Group 333 (NOAA Active Region 3919) has decayed into plage. SIDC Sunspot Group 336 (NOAA Active Region 3923, magnetic type beta) has emerged in the northwest quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A large filament eruption was observed in GOES/SUVI 74 and GOES/SUVI 304 data around 04:30 UTC on December 11, west of SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3917). No associated coronal mass ejection (CME) has been observed in the available coronagraph imagery. A filament eruption was observed around 07:00 UTC on December 11 east of SIDC Sunspot Group 332 (NOAA Active Region 3920). A possibly associated, narrow CME has been observed in LASCO/C2 imagery around 08:00 UTC, lifting off the northeast quadrant. Due to its source location, it is not expected to impact the Earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Koronální díra

A small, northern, positive polarity coronal hole, SIDC Coronal Hole 78, has started to cross the central meridian. An associated high-speed stream may arrive at Earth starting from December 14.

Solární bouře

The solar wind conditions (ACE & DSCOVER) have returned to the slow solar wind regime during the last 24 hours. Speed values were mostly around 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were around 5 nT. The Bz component varied between -6 nT and 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was in the positive sector. Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally were at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2). Geomagnetic conditions locally reached unsettled levels (K BEL 3) between 11:00 UTC and 14:00 UTC on December 11 and then decreased to quiet levels (K BEL 2). Mostly quiet conditions, with a small chance of active intervals are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending no further eruptive activity.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was enhanced starting from 12:25 UTC on December 10 but remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to return to nominal levels over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 132, na základě 05 stanic.

Solární indexy za 10 Dec 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	160
10cm sluneční tok	172
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	141 - Na základě 04 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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