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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Dec 26 1242 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
26 Dec 2024	256	016
27 Dec 2024	256	012
28 Dec 2024	256	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with two M-class flares recorded. A total of 11 numbered sunspot groups were observed on the solar disk during this period. SIDC Sunspot Group 350 (NOAA Active Region 3938) emerged as the current most active region, now located at N20E53, exhibiting a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration. Meanwhile, SIDC Sunspot Group 341 (NOAA Active Region 3932), currently at S18E01, showed reduced flaring activity but remained complex with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration. The largest flare of the period was an M7.3 flare (SIDC Flare 3080), which peaked on December 26 at 03:15 UTC and was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 350 (NOAA Active Region 3938). An earlier M3.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3081), peaking at 00:30 UTC on the same day, was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 350. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain moderate over the next 24 hours, with a high likelihood of M-class flares and a potential for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

Over the past 24 hours, multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery. While these CMEs are not expected to reach Earth directly, a low probability of a glancing blow cannot be fully ruled out. However, the impact is anticipated to have a minimal effect on solar wind speeds and geomagnetic conditions. No additional Earth-directed CMEs have been identified in the currently available SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery.

Koronální díra

SIDC Coronal Hole 83, an equatorial coronal hole with negative polarity, first crossed the central meridian on December 19 and is now positioned on the western side of the Sun, about to rotate over the limb. Similarly, SIDC Coronal Hole 84, a mid-latitude North coronal hole with positive polarity, first crossed the central meridian on December 23 and is also now positioned on the western side of the Sun.

Solární bouře

The solar wind speed at Earth has decreased over the past 24 hours reaching slow solarwind speed regim, dropping from approximately 500 km/s to 360 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field remained below 5 nT, with its southward component fluctuating between -3 nT and 4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue gradually declining over the next 24 hours. The partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery on December 23 at 11:36 UTC was expected to impact solar wind conditions near Earth on December 26 at approximately 00:00 UTC, with a margin of error of +/-12 hours, may still be expected.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were very quiet globally (NOAA Kp: 0 to 1) and quiet locally over Belgium (K-Bel: 0 to 2). The partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on December 23 at 11:36 UTC was expected to arrive near Earth on December 26 at approximately 00:00 UTC (+/- 12 hours). Its impact was anticipated to cause minor to major storm-level geomagnetic conditions, with K-indices potentially reaching values between 5 and 7. Although the CME has not yet arrived, there remains a potential chance for its arrival in the coming hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater-than-10 MeV GOES proton flux continues its gradual decrease following the enhancement that began on December 20. Although it is showing a slow decay, the possibility of crossing the threshold within the next 24 hours cannot be ruled out, given the heightened solar activity with multiple intense flares and coronal mass ejections produced by magnetically complex sunspot groups.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours, while it reached the threshold level in GOES 16. It is expected to remain below the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 272, na základě 05 stanic.

Solární indexy za 25 Dec 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	253
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	006
Odhadovaný Ap	005
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	237 - Na základě 09 stanic

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