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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Dec 28 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
28 Dec 2024	260	007
29 Dec 2024	260	007
30 Dec 2024	260	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with three M-class flares and numerous C-class flares observed. A total of 12 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the solar disk during this period. SIDC Sunspot Group 341 (NOAA Active Region 3932), currently located at S17W23, has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Although showing some signs of decay, it produced the largest flare of the period, an M4.5 flare (SIDC Flare 3102), which peaked on December 28 at 11:21 UTC. SIDC Sunspot Group 350 (NOAA Active Region 3938), currently located at N18E25, continues to be one of the most active regions on the disk, with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration. This region produced an M3.3 flare (SIDC Flare 3097) that peaked on December 27 at 20:35 UTC, along with multiple other C-class flares. Another noteworthy flare, an M1.2 event (SIDC Flare 3093), peaked on December 27 at 15:38 UTC. It originated from SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA Active Region 3928), currently positioned at S16W40, with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration. Finally, SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3933), located at S07W48 with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration, exhibited intense flaring activity, producing multiple C-class flares, including a C9.2 flare that peaked on December 28 at 05:15 UTC. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain moderate over the next 24 hours, with a high likelihood of C-class flares and a chance for M-class flares. A small possibility of X-class flares cannot be ruled out, given the complexity of several active regions.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

Over the past 24 hours, multiple narrow and slow coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery. However, no Earth-directed CMEs have been identified in the currently available data.

Koronální díra

A recurrent coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 60), a mid- latitude coronal hole with positive polarity, is now rotating over the eastern limb. This coronal hole previously crossed the central meridian on September 13, October 10, November 6, and December 5. Past high-speed streams (HSS) associated with this coronal hole have had a relatively mild impact on solar wind conditions, with speeds reaching approximately 500 km/s and K-index values indicating active geomagnetic conditions. The influence of this coronal hole will be monitored as it reached its geo- effective location.

Solární bouře

The solar wind at Earth remains relatively steady in a slow- speed regime, despite the heightened solar activity characterized by multiple intense flares and coronal mass ejections from magnetically complex sunspot groups. The solar wind speed remains well below 400 km/s, and the total interplanetary magnetic field remains stable at levels below 5 nT. This slow-speed solar wind regime is expected to persist. However, given the ongoing solar activity, the possibility of a glancing blow from a CME or other solar wind structure causing temporary disturbances cannot be fully ruled out.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were very quiet globally (NOAA Kp: 0 to 1) and quiet locally over Belgium (K-Bel: 0 to 2). Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected to persist, although short periods of active conditions cannot be fully excluded given the heightened solar activity and the potential for solar wind structures near Earth.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater-than-10 MeV GOES proton flux has now returned to background levels. However, a small chance of a proton event crossing the threshold within the next 24 hours cannot be fully excluded, given the heightened solar activity with multiple intense flares and coronal mass ejections originating from magnetically complex sunspot groups.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater-than-2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 remained below the threshold level over the past 24 hours, while it briefly reached the threshold level in GOES 18. It is expected to remain below the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is currently at normal levels and is anticipated to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 260, na základě 11 stanic.

Solární indexy za 27 Dec 2024

Wolfovo číslo Catania	283
10cm sluneční tok	259
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	003
Odhadovaný Ap	002
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	257 - Na základě 13 stanic

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