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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Jan 04 1240 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
04 Jan 2025	192	034
05 Jan 2025	185	040
06 Jan 2025	180	025

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours with 1 X-class flare and 5 M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was an X1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 3188) with peak time 22:41 UTC January 03. This was produced by SIDC Sunspot group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3947). This region also produced the 5 M-class flares including an M7.6 flare (SIDC Flare 3195), peaking at 05:18 UTC January 04. SIDC Sunspot Group 356 (NOAA Active Region 3943) grew over the period and produced C-class flaring activity. SIDC Sunspot Group 363 (NOAA Active Region 3949) also continued to emerge. The remain regions were quiet and stable. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and X-class flares possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solární bouře

The interplanetary magnetic field showed a decreasing trend on January 03, reducing from 14 to 7 nT. From 23:30 January 03, the magnetic field then began to increase in strength again with a maximum of 18nT. Bz became mostly negative after 02:00 UTC January 04 with a minimum value of -15 nT. From 23:30 UTC January 03, the solar wind speed also gradually increased from 400 km/s to 550 km/s around 04:00 UTC January 04. This is possibly due to the glancing blow arrival of the CME observed on January 01 and a high-speed stream arrival. The solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced on January 04 and 05 due to the ongoing CME effects and high-speed streams associated with the positive polarity SIDC Coronal Holes 60 and 82, which began to cross the central meridian on December 31 and January 01, respectively.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 5, local K Bel 4). Unsettled to minor storm conditions are expected for January 04 and 05, due to combined high speed stream and CME effects.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. However, a proton event over the next day cannot be excluded due to the high flaring potential, particularly from SIDC Sunspot Group 349 (NOAA Active region 3936).

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 215, na základě 07 stanic.

Solární indexy za 03 Jan 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	169
10cm sluneční tok	200
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	009
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	207 - Na základě 18 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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