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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Mar 16 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
16 Mar 2025	185	013
17 Mar 2025	185	015
18 Mar 2025	185	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C4.4 flare peaking on March 16 at 08:03 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 428 (NOAA Active Region 4019). A total of 13 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 428 (NOAA Active Region 4019) has the most complex magnetic configuration (Beta-Gamma-Delta). Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Solární bouře

The solar wind at the Earth transitioned from fast to slow, with speeds gradually decreasing from 560 to 440 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -5 nT. In the next 24h, the solar wind speed may increase due to the influence of the high-speed stream associated with the coronal hole which reached the central meridian March 13.

Geomagnetismus

In the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were mainly quiet to unsettled (Kp3) with an isolated active period at noon March 15. Geomagnetic conditions are expected tor each active levels in the next 24 hours, due to a the high speed stream arrival.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold for most of the time during the past 24 hours, and is expected to remain above the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 210, na základě 13 stanic.

Solární indexy za 15 Mar 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	178
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	014
Odhadovaný Ap	015
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	166 - Na základě 16 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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