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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Mar 26 1256 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
26 Mar 2025	156	036
27 Mar 2025	155	064
28 Mar 2025	153	061

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare and several C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M1.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3910) peaking at 08:09 UTC on March 26, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 455 (NOAA Active Region 4043). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 455) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 4 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 450 is the complex region with its beta-gamma magnetic configurations. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a little chance of X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, the interplanetary magnetic field were enhanced possibly due to the arrival of high speed streams (HSSs) from the elongated, mid-latitude, positive polarity SIDC Coronal Holes 60 which started to cross the central meridian on Mar 22. The solar wind speed ranged from 310 km/s to 420 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 8 nT to 29 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -27 and 18 nT. Further enhanced solar wind parameters are expected with the HSSs from SIDC Coronal Holes 60, and also possibly with HSSs from the equatorial SIDC Coronal Holes 82 (positive polarity) which started to cross the central meridian on Mar 24.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet to minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 2 to 5), and locally at quiet to active conditions (K_BEL 2 to 4) during the past 24 hours. It was due to the possible arrival of high speed streams (HSSs) from the elongated, mid-latitude, positive polarity SIDC Coronal Holes 60 which started to cross the central meridian on Mar 22. In the next 24 hours, active to moderate storm conditions (K 4 to 6) are possible with the further arrival of HSSs from SIDC Coronal Holes 60, and also possibly with HSSs from the equatorial SIDC Coronal Holes 82 (positive polarity) which started to cross the central meridian on Mar 24.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux remained below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. However, a proton event over the next day cannot be excluded due to SIDC Sunspot Group 450 (NOAA Active Region 4036).

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-16 and GOES-18 satellites, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 061, na základě 09 stanic.

Solární indexy za 25 Mar 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	016
Odhadovaný Ap	018
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	083 - Na základě 22 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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