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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Apr 03 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
03 Apr 2025	178	024
04 Apr 2025	176	024
05 Apr 2025	174	031

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low, with only C-class flares recorded over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C3.4 flare (SIDC Flare 4021), peaking at 09:13 UTC on April 3, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 458 (NOAA Active Region 4045; alpha). There are currently eight numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 461 (NOAA Active Region 4048; beta-gamma), which remains one of the more magnetically complex active regions on the disk, was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours together with SIDC Sunspot Group 458 (NOAA Active Region 4045; alpha). Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 464 (NOAA Active Region 4050; beta) and SIDC Sunspot Group 455 (NOAA Active Region 4043; beta). Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected mild ICME influence. The interplanetary magnetic field reached values of up to 12 nT, and the solar wind speed ranged between 400 km/s and 450 km/s. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated over the next 24 hours, with a potential weak enhancement on April 4 - April 5 due to the possible arrival of a high-speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole that began crossing the central meridian on April 1.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active levels globally (NOAA Kp: 4). Locally only quiet to unsettled (K-Bel=2-3) conditions were observed over Belgium. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next few days, with a chance of isolated active periods on April 3 due to ongoing ICME influence. From April 4, active conditions are expected, with a possible isolated minor storm interval in response to the arrival of the high-speed stream.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was slightly elevated, remaining well below radiation storm levels. The proton flux is expected to gradually return to nominal levels over the next few days, with a chance of exceeding minor storm levels if any high-energy flares or eruptions occur.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18, was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 159, na základě 23 stanic.

Solární indexy za 02 Apr 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	181
10cm sluneční tok	180
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	018
Odhadovaný Ap	021
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	136 - Na základě 20 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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