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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Apr 29 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
29 Apr 2025	154	011
30 Apr 2025	154	011
01 May 2025	154	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with three M-class flares detected. A total of 10 sunspot groups were observed on the visible solar disk, indicating that we remain in a highly active phase of the solar cycle. The largest flare was an M1.7 event (SIDC Flare 4232), which peaked on April 29 at 05:13 UTC. It originated from SIDC Sunspot Group 486 (NOAA Active Region 4079), currently located at N07E77. This region has a Beta- Gamma magnetic configuration, showed signs of growth over the past 24 hours, and also produced several C-class flares. SIDC Sunspot Group 482 (NOAA Active Region 4070), currently positioned at S12W47, also has a Beta- Gamma configuration. It remained stable during the reporting period and did not produce any flaring activity. The returning SIDC Sunspot Group 455 (formerly NOAA Active Region 4043, now renumbered as 4078), currently located at N16W50, has a Beta magnetic configuration. This region showed signs of growth over the past 24 hours and produced the second- and third- largest flare of the period: an M1.6 flare (SIDC Flare 4238), which peaked on April 29 at 10:57 UTC, and an M1.3 flare (SIDC Flare 4237), which peaked on April 29 at 10:02 UTC. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares likely and a continued chance for M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

The recurrent SIDC Coronal Hole 99 (trans-equatorial elongated coronal hole with a negative polarity) reached the central meridian today, on April 29. (It first reached the central meridian on April 06)

Solární bouře

The Earth remains under the influence of a slow solar wind, with speeds holding steady around 400 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) gradually increased, reaching a peak of 9.5 nT around April 29 at 04:00 UTC, before returning to values near 6 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to persist over the next 24 hours, with only a very small chance of seeing the arrival of a high-speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole located in the southern hemisphere (SIDC Coronal Hole 104). Looking ahead, in approximately 3 to 4 days, the arrival of a high-speed stream associated with the SIDC Coronal Hole 99 (a large, elongated trans-equatorial coronal hole with negative polarity) which is crossing the central meridian today, on April 29.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled globally and locally (Kp and K_Bel up to 3). The possible arrival of a high speed solar wind stream may increase conditions to active levels. Otherwise, mostly quiet conditions can be expected.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and 19has been above the threshold over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may decrease over the next 24 hours.The 24-hour electron fluence is presently between normal and moderate levels, it may decrease over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 109, na základě 28 stanic.

Solární indexy za 28 Apr 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	126
10cm sluneční tok	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	005
Odhadovaný Ap	004
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	115 - Na základě 34 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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