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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 May 06 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
06 May 2025	159	016
07 May 2025	159	015
08 May 2025	157	010

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group 492 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 4082, Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration) produced three C-class flares, including the brightest event, a C2 on 5 May at 18:39 UTC. SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA AR 4079) remains very calm considering its size and Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration, as it only produced three C1 flares during the past 24 hours. For the next 24 hours C-class flares are expected, although isolated M-class flaring remains possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A CME seen in LASCO-C2 images as launched on 5 May at 15:00 UTC is a back-sided event and not expected to reach Earth.

Solární bouře

During the last 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions remained affected by the High Speed Stream (HSS) that arrived on 4 May. However, the effect is now waning as evident from the drop of the SW speed from 800 km/s to 600 km/s during the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field (B) varied between 3 and 7 nT and its North-South component (Bz) fluctuated between -6 and 5 nT during the same period. The SW conditions are expected to remain affected by the HSS during the next 24 hours, although the decline is very likely to continue.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions registered globally minor storm levels for a short period of time (NOAA Kp 5- on 5 May from 15:00 to 18:00 UTC), while of the rest of the last 24 hours they fluctuated between quiet and active levels (NOAA Kp 2+ to 4). Locally the geomagnetic conditions registered only up to active levels (K BEL 2 to 4) during the same period. In the next 24 hours they are expected to continue at active levels both globally and locally.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater-than-2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 19 was above the 1000 pfu threshold level for most of the past 24 hours, with a peak value at 16000 pfu. It is expected to remain in the same pattern during the next 24 hours but marginally subside. The 24-hour electron fluence increase to high levels since 6 May 04:50 UTC and is expected to continue at high levels for most of the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 097, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 05 May 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	163
10cm sluneční tok	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	026
Odhadovaný Ap	028
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	102 - Na základě 21 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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