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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 May 10 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
10 May 2025	137	010
11 May 2025	135	008
12 May 2025	132	005

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 4079, Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration) was the only flare producing region, with the brightest being SIDC flare 4346, a C3 emitted on 10 May at 01:03 UTC. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain low in the next 24 hours as all visible AR are stable or decreasing in size.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

SIDC Coronal Hole (CH) 101 is a small middle-latitude CH with positive polarity and started crossing the central solar meridian during the past 24 hours. Due to its size, irregular shape, and location it only has a very small chance of affecting Earth. If the effect materialises it will most likely take place on 13 May.

Solární bouře

During the past 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) activity was affected by the expected arrivals of a glancing blow from a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) and a High Speed Stream (HSS). However the HSS was significantly weakened and had a minor effect to the SW parameters. The SW speed gradually increased from around 400 km/s to 550 km/s, the interplanetary magnetic field (B) varied between 3 and 10 nT, and its North-South component (Bz) fluctuated between -10 and 6 nT. The effects of the CME glancing blow are expected to end in the next hours and the HSS influence is expected to continue at the current level.

Geomagnetismus

During the past 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were affected by the arrivals of a glancing blow from a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) and a weakened High Speed Stream (HSS). Globally active to unsettled conditions were registered between 9 May 15:00 UTC and 10 May 06:00 UTC (NOAA Kp 3 to 4+) but dropped back to quiet (NOAA Kp 2) since. Locally the conditions were more disturbed, reaching minor storm levels (K BEL 5) from 18:00 to 21:00 UTC on 9 May. However they dropped back to unsettled level (K BEL 3) immediately after this period. As the effects of the CME are now over and the HSS is very weak, the geomagnetic conditions of the next 24 hours are expected to be unsettled to quiet, with possibly brief periods of active conditions.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

During the past 24 hours the greater-than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES 19, reached it peak value of 15000 pfu on 9 May at 16:10 UTC. However it rapidly declined and since 9 May at 21:05 UTC it remains below the 1000 pfu alert level. For the next 24 hours it is expected to continue registering values below the alert threshold. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 077, na základě 23 stanic.

Solární indexy za 09 May 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	093
10cm sluneční tok	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	022
Odhadovaný Ap	019
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	078 - Na základě 28 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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