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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Jun 03 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
03 Jun 2025	139	055
04 Jun 2025	141	024
05 Jun 2025	143	024

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was moderate, with one M-class flare and several C-class flares recorded over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 4533), peaking at 21:42 UTC on June 2, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA Active Region 4100; magnetic type beta-gamma). There are currently six numbered active regions on the visible solar disc. A new region is rotating over the southeast limb (SIDC Sunspot Group 513). SIDC Sunspot Group 469 was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours, together with active regions behind the southeast limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 459 (NOAA Active Region 4096) is expected to rotate over the west limb in the next hours. Other regions on the disc have simple configurations of their photospheric magnetic fields (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A large filament eruption was observed near the center of the solar disk starting around 00:50 UTC on June 03. We are awaiting the corresponding coronagraph data for further analysis. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were slightly disturbed under the ongoing ICME influence. The interplanetary magnetic field reached values up to 15 nT before decreasing to around 8 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 580 and 720 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly negative, with a minimum value of -14 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated over the next 24 hours due to the ongoing ICME and possible HSS influence.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions reached major storm levels globally (NOAA Kp = 7) between 03:00 and 06:00 UTC on June 3 due to prolonged periods of negative Bz. Locally, minor storm conditions were observed (K-Bel = 5). Further periods of minor to moderate storm conditions may occur over the next 24 hours due to the ongoing ICME passage and possible high-speed stream (HSS) influence.

Úrovně protonového toku

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux continued to decrease and, although still slightly elevated, remained below the 10 pfu threshold. The proton flux is expected to return to background levels over the next days, with a small chance of a particle event occurring in association with an X-class flare or a coronal mass ejection.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-19, exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to continue exceeding this threshold over the next day. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels and is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 091, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 02 Jun 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	140
AK Chambon La Forêt	072
AK Wingst	///
Odhadovaný Ap	049
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	104 - Na základě 26 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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