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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Jun 07 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
07 Jun 2025	122	026
08 Jun 2025	118	029
09 Jun 2025	118	025

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low, with only C-class flares recorded over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C4.5 flare (SIDC Flare 4570), peaking at 17:02 UTC on June 6, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 513 (NOAA Active Region 4105; magnetic type beta- gamma). There are currently six numbered active regions on the visible solar disc. SIDC Sunspot Group 513 was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours, together with SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA Active Region 4100), which is expected to rotate over the west limb in the coming hours. Two new active regions emerged during the period, located in the southwest and southeast quadrants of the visible solar disc, and numbered SIDC Sunspot Group 518 (NOAA Active Region 4108; magnetic type beta) and SIDC Sunspot Group 519 (NOAA Active Region 4109; magnetic type beta), respectively. Other regions on the disc have simple photospheric magnetic field configurations and did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A faint coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 515) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data starting at 11:12 UTC on June 6, directed primarily toward the northeast from Earth’s perspective. While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, preliminary analysis suggests that a mild glancing blow could be possible from late on June 8. Further analysis is ongoing to better determine the expected impacts at Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Solární bouře

At the beginning of the period, the solar wind parameters reflected near slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from approximately 470 km/s to 400 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field remained below 5 nT. From around 00:14 UTC on June 7, the solar wind conditions became slightly disturbed, with the interplanetary magnetic field reaching values up to 11 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -9 nT and 8 nT. This is likely associated with the arrival of a coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 514), first detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery early on June 3. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated over the next 24 hours due to the combined influence of the ICME and a possible high-speed stream associated with a negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 111).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions reached active conditions globally and locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp = 4, 4+, K-Bel = 4) between 06:00 and 12:00 UTC on June 07, due to the ICME arrival associated with the CME from early on June 03 (SIDC CME 514). Further periods of active to minor storm conditions may occur over the next 24 hours due to the ongoing ICME passage and possible high-speed stream influence.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-19, exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to continue exceeding this threshold over the next day. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels and is expected to remain at these levels over the next day.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 089, na základě 06 stanic.

Solární indexy za 06 Jun 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	084
10cm sluneční tok	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	009
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	102 - Na základě 25 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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