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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Jul 03 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
03 Jul 2025	129	024
04 Jul 2025	127	031
05 Jul 2025	125	017

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with several C-class flares recorded. The largest flare was a C2.5 flare (SIDC Flare 4787) peaking at 18:35 UTC on July 02, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 537 (NOAA Active Region 4126; beta), which has now almost fully rotated over the west limb. There are currently eight numbered active regions on the visible solar disk. Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 533 (NOAA Active Region 4122; beta). The remaining active regions are relatively simple (magnetic type alpha or beta) and did not produce any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A wide coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 525) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at around 07:32 UTC on July 03, directed toward the west from Earth's perspective. The CME is likely associated with the large filament eruption from the back of the Sun. Therefore, no impact on the solar wind condition near Earth is expected. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Solární bouře

At the beginning of the period, the solar wind parameters reflected slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed varied between 340 km/s and 370 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field remained weak, below 5 nT. Later in the period, the solar wind conditions became slightly disturbed, with the interplanetary magnetic field reaching up to 14 nT around 09:05 UTC on July 03. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -9 nT and 13 nT. This is likely associated with the arrival of a partial halo CME (SIDC CME 523), observed lifting from the Sun on June 28. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated due to the ICME passage, with a chance of a weak enhancement on July 04 due to the possible arrival of a high-speed stream from the recurrent negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 111).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled both globally and locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp: 1 to 3; K-Bel: 2 to 3). Mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with a chance of isolated active or minor storm periods due to ongoing CME influence and the possible arrival of a high-speed stream from the recurrent negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 111).

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 and GOES-19, exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 126, na základě 25 stanic.

Solární indexy za 02 Jul 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	172
10cm sluneční tok	130
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	009
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	144 - Na základě 28 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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