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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Jul 22 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
22 Jul 2025	140	010
23 Jul 2025	137	019
24 Jul 2025	135	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares. The strongest flare was a C2.8 flare (SIDC Flare 4929) peaking at 08:08 UTC on July 22, which was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 559 (NOAA Active Region 4143, magnetic type beta). There are currently twelve numbered active regions on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Groups 522, 559, 564, 565 (NOAA Active Regions 4136, 4143, 4149, 4150) are the most complex ones with magnetic type beta. SIDC Sunspot Group 570 (magnetic type alpha) has emerged in the southeast quadrant. SIDC Sunspot Groups 568, 569 (both magnetic type alpha) have rotated on disc from the east limb. SIDC Sunspot Groups 522, 553, 559, 563 (NOAA Active Regions 4136, 4140, 4143, 4148) are currently rotating over the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Groups 560, 561 (NOAA Active Regions 4144, 4145) have decayed into plage. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 528), was observed in LASCO/C2 and C3 coronagraph imagery starting from around 15:00 UTC on July 21, lifting off the east limb. No clear source was identified on the visible disk, suggesting a backsided event that will not impact Earth. A CME (SIDC CME 529), was observed in LASCO/C2 and C3 coronagraph imagery starting from around 04:00 UTC on July 21, lifting off the southeast limb. The CME is most likely associated with a filament eruption observed in AIA 304 data around 02:45 UTC on July 21, near the central meridian in mid-latitude south hemisphere. The CME is expected to miss Earth, with a slight chance for a glancing blow starting from July 25. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected mostly slow solar wind conditions. Speed values ranged between 330 km/s and 360 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were between 4 nT and 10 nT. The Bz component varied between -5 nT and 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the positive sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, due to the expected arrival of the high-speed stream from the negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 116) which started to cross the central meridian on July 19.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 1 to 2). Geomagnetic conditions locally were mostly at quiet levels (K BEL 1 to 2), reaching unsettled levels between 15:00 and 17:00 UTC on July 21. Active to minor storm conditions are expected for the next 24 hours due to the expected arrival of the high-speed stream from the negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 116).

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was mostly above the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to gradually drop below the 1000 pfu threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at high levels and is expected to decrease to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 112, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 21 Jul 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	178
10cm sluneční tok	143
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	004
Odhadovaný Ap	004
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	148 - Na základě 25 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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