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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Jul 24 1240 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
24 Jul 2025	151	008
25 Jul 2025	154	014
26 Jul 2025	155	026

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares. The strongest flare was a C8.1 flare (SIDC Flare 4939) peaking at 05:45 UTC on July 24, from beyond the west limb. There are currently nine numbered active regions on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Groups 564, 570 (NOAA Active Regions 4149, 4153) are the most complex Groups with magnetic type beta. SIDC Sunspot Group 572 (magnetic type beta), SIDC Sunspot Groups 539, 573 (both magnetic type alpha) have rotated on disk from the east limb. SIDC Sunspot Groups 568 has decayed into a plage region. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A faint partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 530) was observed in LASCO/C2 and C3 coronagraph imagery starting from around 08:00 UTC on July 23. The CME is probably associated with a filament eruption in the southwest quadrant seen in SUVI 304 data from around 02:30 UTC on July 23. Preliminary analysis suggests that the ICME may arrive at Earth starting from the UTC noon on July 26. Further analysis of the event is ongoing. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) continued to reflect the ongoing influence of the high-speed stream associated with the negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 116). The solar wind speed values ranged between 600 km/s and 780 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were between 4 nT and 9 nT. The Bz component varied between -7 nT and 8 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the negative sector. Further enhanced solar wind conditions may be expected over the next 24 hours, due to the small chance of arrival of a glancing blow associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 529, observed around 04:00 UTC on July 21) and the continuous influence of the high-speed stream from the negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 116).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly at unsettled to active levels (NOAA Kp 3 to 4), with an interval of minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 5-) between 12:00 UTC and 15:00 UTC on July 23. Geomagnetic conditions locally were mostly at unsettled to active levels (K BEL 3 to 4). Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours, with possible isolated active conditions (NOAA Kp 4, K BEL 4), due to the small chance of arrival of a glancing blow associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 529, observed around 04:00 UTC on July 21).

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 was mostly below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours and briefly exceed the 1000 pfu threshold around 09:00 UTC on July 24. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain around the 1000 pfu threshold levels in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and might reach moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 123, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 23 Jul 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	118
10cm sluneční tok	150
AK Chambon La Forêt	041
AK Wingst	032
Odhadovaný Ap	032
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	111 - Na základě 20 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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