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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Sep 13 1236 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
13 Sep 2025	114	013
14 Sep 2025	112	039
15 Sep 2025	111	039

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C1.5 flare (SIDC Flare 5480, (S11 E88)) peaking on September 13 at 08:14 UTC which was produced by an unnumbered group in the SE limb. A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 635 (NOAA Active Region 4216) is the most complex region with its beta magnetic configurations. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, possibly with few C-class flares and a small chance for M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A coronal mass ejection (CME) with a projected width of about 100 deg has been first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 15:12 on Sep 12. It is associated with a prominence eruption in SW limb. With the bulk of the mass strongly directed towards S and mostly backsided, this CME will possibly miss Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

Solární bouře

Earth is presently inside the slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged from 335 km/s to 415 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 4 nT to 8 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -5 and 5 nT. Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected in the next 24 hours with the arrival of high speed streams from the SIDC Coronal Hole 116 (negative polarity), which started to cross the central meridian on Sep 10.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp 1 to 3), both globally and locally during the past 24 hours. We expect unsettled to minor storm conditions (K 3 to 5) in the next 24 hours with the arrival of high speed streams from the SIDC Coronal Hole 116 (negative polarity), which started to cross the central meridian on Sep 10.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 satellite, exceeded above the 1000 pfu threshold level from 16:30 UTC to 23:45 UTC on Sep 12. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-19 satellite, increased and mostly remained below the threshold level, except for a fluctuation around the threshold from 16:30 UTC to 18:15 UTC on Sep 12. It was in response to the high solar wind speed associated with the SIDC Coronal Hole 123 (positive polarity) which crossed the central meridian during Sep 02-09. In the next 24 hours, the electron flux may exceed the threshold level again. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 061, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 12 Sep 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	068
10cm sluneční tok	114
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	007
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	054 - Na základě 27 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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