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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Oct 08 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
08 Oct 2025	123	011
09 Oct 2025	120	006
10 Oct 2025	115	004

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only three C-class flares identified. By far the brightest flare of the past 24 hours was SIDC flare 5691, a C9 emitted on 7 Oct at 20:07 UTC. It was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 657 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 4236, Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration). SIDC Sunspot Groups 653 (NOAA AR 4232, Beta magnetic configuration) and 663 (NOAA AR 4242, Alpha magnetic configuration) also produced a C1 flare each in the past 24 hours. Further C-class flaring is expected in the next 24 hours, however SIDC Sunspot Group 657 has subsided significantly and no flares above C5 intensity are expected.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) seen in LASCO-C2 images as launched on 7 Oct at 10:36 UTC is associated with SIDC sunspot group 665 (NOAA Active Region 4244). Based on the location of the launch and the shape of the CME, it is expected to affect the Earth as a glancing blow on the first half of 11 Oct.

Koronální díra

SIDC Coronal Hole 116, an equatorial coronal hole with a negative polarity, first reached the central meridian on October 08. An associated High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to affect Earth on 11 Oct.

Solární bouře

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions feature a slow SW regime during the past 24 hours. The SW speed ranged from 400 to 480 km/s, while the interplanetary magnetic field (B) varied between 8 and 12 nT, and its North-South component (Bz) fluctuated between -8 and 5 nT. A similar pattern is expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

During the last 24 hours geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet to active (NOAA Kp 2 to 4+) and locally quiet to unsettled ( K BEL 2 to 3). In the next 24 hours they are expected to vary between unsettled and quiet levels.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, was at background levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 19 was well above the 1000 pfu alert threshold until 8 Oct 00:00 UTC, with a peak value at 10000 pfu. Since then it fluctuates between 100 and 1800 pfu. In the next 24 hours it is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu alert threshold. The 24-hour electron fluence dropped from high to moderate levels during the past 24 hours. It is expected to drop further and possibly reach normal levels in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 075, na základě 11 stanic.

Solární indexy za 07 Oct 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	131
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	018
Odhadovaný Ap	018
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	124 - Na základě 14 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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