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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Oct 12 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
12 Oct 2025	131	022
13 Oct 2025	135	024
14 Oct 2025	140	019

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with five C-class flares identified. SIDC flare 5714 was the brightest of all, a C2 that peaked on 11 Oct at 19:15 UTC. It is associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 666 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 4247, Beta magnetic configuration). Three of the flares were produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 639 (NOAA AR 4246, Beta magnetic configuration) and the last flare from SIDC Sunspot Group 621 (NOAA AR 4248 and 4250, Beta magnetic configuration). More C-class flaring activity is expected in the next 24 hours, from any of SIDC Sunspot Groups 639, 666, and 621. There is also a small chance for an M-class flare from SIDC Sunspot Group 621.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A CME seen in LASCO-C2 images as launched on 11 Oct at 18:48 UTC is a back-sided event and not expected to reach Earth.

Solární bouře

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions are affected by a High Speed Stream (HSS) arrival on 11 Oct at around 21:30 UTC. It is associated with the SIDC Coronal Hole 116 crossing of the solar central meridian on 8 Oct. However, by that time the effects of the glancing blow associated with SIDC CME 578 had already subsided hence the two events did not coincide. As a result of the HSS arrival, the SW speed reached 800 km/s on 12 Oct at around 05:30 UTC and remains above 700 km/s since. The interplanetary magnetic field (B) peaked at 17 nT on 11 Oct 18:45 UTC, while still under the influence of the glancing blow, and have now dropped to around 5 nT. The B's North-South component (Bz) fluctuated between -10 and 10 nT while still affected by the glancing blow and now ranges between -5 and 5 nT. The presents of the HSS is expected to continue in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

During the last 24 hours geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet to active (NOAA Kp 2+ to 4) and locally quiet to unsettled (K BEL 2 to 3). These were rather modest conditions considering the arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS) late on 11 Oct. However, it can be explained by the relatively low interplanetary magnetic field and more importantly from the absence of a strong negative North-South interplanetary magnetic field component (Bz). In the next 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at active levels both globally and locally, however there is a change that minor storm levels might occur if there is a decrease in Bz.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, was at background levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 19 was above the 1000 pfu alert threshold on 11 Oct between 12:50 and 20:00 UTC, with a peak value at 2800 pfu, but has dropped below the alert level since. In the next 24 hours it is expected to remain below the alert threshold. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels during the past 24 hours. It is expected to drop to normal levels within the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 127, na základě 09 stanic.

Solární indexy za 11 Oct 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	131
AK Chambon La Forêt	029
AK Wingst	018
Odhadovaný Ap	018
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	099 - Na základě 12 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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