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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Nov 16 1248 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
16 Nov 2025	130	019
17 Nov 2025	130	024
18 Nov 2025	130	017

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with one M-class flare identified. The largest was an M3.1 flare (SIDC Flare 6105) that peaked at 08:17 UTC on 16 Nov, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). SIDC Sunspot Group 687 has rotated past the west limb and is currently at N24W94. Other regions show very low to no flaring activity; therefore, overall flaring is expected to be low over the next 24 hours. Although just beyond the west limb, C-class flares remain likely, with a small chance of an M-class event coming from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274).

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A large south-southeast coronal mass ejection has been detected with a relatively slow speed as estimated in the plane of the sky. The source is believed to be on the far side of the Sun, so this CME is likely back-sided. No Earth-directed CMEs were identified in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph images during the past 24 hours.

Koronální díra

SIDC Coronal Hole 126 (mid-latitude coronal hole with a negative polarity) first reached the central meridian on November 13 and is now positioned on the western side of the Sun.

Solární bouře

During the past 24 hours the solar wind stayed moderately fast, with a clear enhancement around 01:00 UTC on 16 November consistent with the expected glancing passage of the coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 601). Around 01:00 UTC on 16 November, the speed rose from about 540 km/s to above 600 km/s, then increased further to a peak near 727 km/s and is now around 650 to 680 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), Bt, climbed from about 5 nT to 10 nT with the initial step, then reached a maximum near 17.7 nT around 05:30 UTC. The north-south component of the IMF, Bz, ranged between about -7.5 nT and +15.5 nT, predominantly positive with only brief southward intervals. Over the next 24 hours speeds should gradually decline but remain above background as the CME influence wanes and high-speed flow from SIDC Coronal Hole 126 (mid-latitude, negative polarity) begins to affect near-Earth conditions later today.

Geomagnetismus

Global activity increased to unsettled with a brief active interval. NOAA Kp ranged from 1 to 4, peaking at Kp=4 between 00:00 and 03:00 UTC on 16 Nov. This likely reflects a prolonged period of southward Bz combined with a sudden increase in the total interplanetary magnetic field around 01:00 UTC associated with the glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 601). In Belgium, K BEL was mostly 1 to 3. Over the next 24 hours, conditions should range between quiet and unsettled with occasional active intervals. High-speed streams from SIDC Coronal Hole 126 (mid-latitude, negative polarity) later today may prolong unsettled to active conditions with a chance of isolated minor storm periods if Bz turns south.

Úrovně protonového toku

During the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux measured by GOES-19 was below the 10 pfu threshold and continut to return to its background levels. Further enhancements remain possible, particularly if the SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274) produces additional eruptions.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 084, na základě 04 stanic.

Solární indexy za 15 Nov 2025

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	132
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	104 - Na základě 12 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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