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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2026 Jan 12 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
12 Jan 2026	112	022
13 Jan 2026	114	031
14 Jan 2026	114	012

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a M3.3 flare (SIDC Flare 6631) peaking on January 11 at 23:14 UTC, originated from a region from behind the east limb. A total of 4 numbered sunspot groups are currently on the disk, all having alpha or beta magnetic configuration and have produced only C-class flaring. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. The halo CME detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 23:36 UTC 11 JAN 2026, is backsided and not expected to arrive to the Earth.

Solární bouře

Solar wind conditions were slightly elevated with speeds around 540 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was around 10nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -10 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated due to the ongoing ICME passage, and the possible arrival of high-speed streams from negative polarity coronal holes (SIDC Coronal Hole 137 and SIDC Coronal Hole 142).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels globally and locally (Kp 5, K5) between 12:00 and 21:00 UTC on January 11 Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next day due to the ongoing ICME passage and possible HSS arrival.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded slightly the 1000 pfu threshold on 11 JAN between 21:35 UTC and 12 JAN 01:30 UTC and is currently slightly above the threshold since 10:45 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to have short crossings over the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 049, na základě 08 stanic.

Solární indexy za 11 Jan 2026

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	111
AK Chambon La Forêt	047
AK Wingst	032
Odhadovaný Ap	035
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	065 - Na základě 15 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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