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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2026 Feb 03 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
03 Feb 2026	174	007
04 Feb 2026	176	007
05 Feb 2026	178	026

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Numerous M-class flares were detected in the last 24 hours, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366) currently located at N13E20. This sunspot group has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and was growing over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a M7.2 flare (SIDC Flare 6842) peaking on February 03 at 07:01 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366). Solar flaring activity is expected to be high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and X-class flares possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the last 24 hours. After compiling the latest observations and simulation results, the arrival time to the Earth of the CME from 2 February has been recalculated to 5 February around 6:00 UT.

Solární bouře

The Earth is within a slow solar wind stream. The solar wind speed is around 300 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet in the last 24 hours (Kp and K_BEL up to 2). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366) will cross the central meridian after that, becoming better magnetically connected with the Earth and increasing the risk of a proton storm.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 has been above the 1000 pfu threshold for most of the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to slowly return to low levels in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to go to normal levels over the next hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 157, na základě 07 stanic.

Solární indexy za 02 Feb 2026

Wolfovo číslo Catania	185
10cm sluneční tok	174
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	006
Odhadovaný Ap	006
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	132 - Na základě 12 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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