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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2026 Feb 05 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
05 Feb 2026	167	031
06 Feb 2026	165	012
07 Feb 2026	163	007

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. The activity, including an X-class flare, was again driven by SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366), currently located at N13W06 with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. This region has stopped growing but remains very active. The largest flare it produced was an X4.2 one, peaking at 12:13 UTC on February 4. Solar flaring activity is expected to be high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and X-class flares possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed CMEs have been detected in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

A small coronal hole is on the western hemisphere since yesterday, SIDC Coronal Hole 136 (equatorial coronal hole with a negative polarity). A larger one, SIDC Coronal Hole 142 (mid-latitude coronal hole with a negative polarity), in the northern hemisphere, will cross the central meridian today.

Solární bouře

A shock arrived at the L1 point, observed in ACE data at 14:20 UTC. The interplanetary magnetic field increased from 11 to 22 nT, and the solar wind speed rose from 320 to 400 km/s. The shock was followed by an extended sheath region lasting until 01:00 UTC on 5 February. After that, the ejecta associated with the 2 February CME was observed, showing a rotation of the magnetic field components, with the total interplanetary magnetic field reaching up to 18 nT, Bz dropping to -15 nT, and speeds peaking at 580 km/s. The event is still ongoing, so similarly disturbed conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels (Kp and K_Bel up to 5), due to the ICME arrival corresponding to the February 2 CME. Unsettled to active conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366) is on the western hemisphere, and thus a warning condition for elevated fluxes reaching the Earth has been issued.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 has been mostly below the 1000 pfu threshold for most of the last 24 hours. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 136, na základě 10 stanic.

Solární indexy za 04 Feb 2026

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	012
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	155 - Na základě 15 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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