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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2026 Feb 18 1304 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
18 Feb 2026	123	013
19 Feb 2026	121	033
20 Feb 2026	121	027

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C1.8 flare (SIDC Flare 7043) peaking on February 17 at 23:23 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 762 (NOAA Active Regions 4342, 4374). A total of 5 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 762 (NOAA Active Region 4374) is the most complex region with its Beta magnetic configuration. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and a chance for M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

Few wider coronal mass ejections (CMEs), associated to prominence eruptions, were observed in the SE and SW limb, but none of them had Earth-directed components. No other Earth-directed CME has been identified in the available coronograph imagery.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were still disturbed under the influence of high speed streams (HSSs) from the elongated, positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 146). The solar wind speed ranged from 483 to 610 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 3 to 6 nT, with the North-South component (Bz) reaching a minimum of -4 nT. In the next 24 hours, solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced with the further arrival of HSSs from the same coronal hole, and possibly if the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) associated to the CME (associated to a filament eruption) that was observed lifting from the Sun in the afternoon of Feb 16 arrives earlier than expected.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 2 to 3), during the past 24 hours. In the next 24 hours, we expect unsettled to moderate storm conditions (K 3 to 6) possibly with the further arrival of HSSs from the SIDC Coronal Hole 146 (elongated, positive polarity), and it is also possible if the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) associated to the CME (associated to a filament eruption) that was observed lifting from the Sun in the afternoon of Feb 16 arrives earlier than expected.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 satellite, increased and exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold level from 15:15 UTC on Feb 17 to 03:30 UTC on Feb 18. It is expected to exceed the threshold level in the coming 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-19 satellite, exceeded above the 1000 pfu threshold level around 13:00 UTC on Feb 17 and dropped below the threshold level around 21:30 UTC on Feb 18. It is above the threshold level since 05:15 UTC on Feb 18 and expected to remain so. It was in response to the high speed streams (HSS) from the elongated, positive polarity, coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 146) which started to cross the central meridian since Feb 13. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain at normal to moderate level in the coming 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 043, na základě 15 stanic.

Solární indexy za 17 Feb 2026

Wolfovo číslo Catania	082
10cm sluneční tok	122
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	015
Odhadovaný Ap	013
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	069 - Na základě 20 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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