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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2026 May 02 1249 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
02 May 2026	146	010
03 May 2026	145	032
04 May 2026	143	032

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C7.4 flare (SIDC Flare 7585) peaking on May 01 at 15:29 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 847 (NOAA Active Region 4420). A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and possibly M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

Further analysis of the two faint, slow (around 250 km/s), subsequent coronal mass ejections (CMEs),which were observed in the SOHOS/LASCO C2 field of view around 12:30 UTC and 18:30 UTC on Apr 30, shows that they may not be detected at Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

Koronální díra

SIDC Coronal Hole (CH) 142, which is a recurrent, negative polarity CH, has crossed the central meridian on May 02. The high speed streams from this CH may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth during May 02-05.

Solární bouře

Solar wind parameters are transitioning from fast to slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged between 390 km/s and 560 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -5 and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field has decreased from 2 nT to 6 nT. We expect a transition to slow solar wind regime in the next 24 hours, unless the high speed streams from the negative polarity, recurrent coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 142), which crossed the central meridian during Apr 29 - May 02, arrives at Earth.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3). In the next 24 hours, active to minor storm conditions (K 4 to 5) are possible if the high speed streams from the SIDC Coronal Hole 142, which crossed the central meridian during Apr 29 - May 02 (negative polarity), arrives at Earth.

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. Any major eruption from the SIDC Sunspot Groups 847 and 851 (NOAA Active Regions 4420 and 4424), during the next 24 hours, could be possibly associated with a proton event.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-19 and GOES-18 satellites, remained below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at moderate level and is expected to be at normal to moderate level in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 140, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 01 May 2026

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	145
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	016
Odhadovaný Ap	017
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	159 - Na základě 25 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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