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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2026 Jun 13 1234 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
13 Jun 2026	124	030
14 Jun 2026	126	037
15 Jun 2026	128	017

Slunečně aktivní oblasti a vzplanutí

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with several C-class flares recorded. The largest flare was a C1.8 flare (SIDC Flare 7937), peaking at 02:18 UTC on June 13, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 891 (NOAA Active Region 4464; magnetic type beta). There are currently three numbered active regions on the visible solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 870 (NOAA Active Region 4465; magnetic type alpha) showed some decay and a decrease in the complexity of its underlying magnetic field configuration, and remained quiet. SIDC Sunspot Group 891 exhibited some growth over the past 24 hours and currently has the highest chance of producing flares on the visible solar disk. Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 892 (NOAA Active Region 4466), which has now decayed to a plage region, and by an active region currently rotating onto the visible side of the disk from behind the southeast limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a small chance of M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A faint coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 676) was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 from around 16:36 UTC on June 12, directed primarily towards the northeast from Earth's perspective. It was likely associated with a filament eruption observed from around 16:05 UTC on June 12 near N00E35. The bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, although a glancing blow may be possible from late on June 14.

Koronální díra

A small positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 168) started to cross the central meridian today, on June 13.

Solární bouře

At the beginning of the period, solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of the high-speed stream from the equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 147). The solar wind speed decreased from about 610 km/s to approximately 550 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak, below 6 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (the field directed towards the Sun). A mild shock was detected in the solar wind data (ACE and SOLAR-1) at 09:51 UTC on June 13, possibly associated with the arrival of the June 11 CME (SIDC CME 675). The interplanetary magnetic field jumped from about 5 nT to 8 nT, while the solar wind speed increased from 550 km/s to 580 km/s, later reaching values up to 620 km/s towards the end of the period. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated over the next 24 hours due to the ongoing influence of the high-speed stream and the probable ICME passage. A weak enhancement is also possible on June 13 due to possible glancing blow arrivals from the June 9 CMEs (SIDC CMEs 673-674), although confidence is low. A further weak enhancement is possible from late on June 14 due to a possible glancing blow arrival from the June 12 CME (SIDC CME 676).

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled both globally and locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp = 1 to 3; K-Bel = 1 to 3). Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with possible isolated minor to moderate storm periods due to the ongoing ICME passage associated with the June 11 CME (SIDC CME 675), and a small chance for additional glancing blow arrivals from the June 9 CMEs (SIDC CMEs 673-674). From late on June 14, further minor to moderate storm periods may be possible due to the possible arrival of the June 12 CME (SIDC CME 676).

Úrovně protonového toku

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, was below the 10pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Elektronové toky na geostacionární oběžné dráze

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-19, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may exceed the 1000 pfu alert threshold over the next 24 hours in response to the high-speed stream influence. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to at normal to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 050, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 12 Jun 2026

Wolfovo číslo Catania	083
10cm sluneční tok	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	014
Odhadovaný Ap	016
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	078 - Na základě 17 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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