Archiv von Sonntag, 13 Oktober 2013 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Oct 13 1220 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
13 Oct 2013	132	007
14 Oct 2013	132	014
15 Oct 2013	134	011

Bulletin

Active conditions are foreseen for the next 48 hours, with NOAA AR 1865 being the main candidate for an isolated M class flare, as well as, but to a lesser extent, AR 1861. An M1.7 flare occurred in AR 1865 on Oct. 13, 0043 UT (peak time). It was associated with a partial halo CME as observed from SOHO by LASCO. We expect the bulk of this CME to pass south of the Earth, but a partial hit is not excluded, with a possible arrival time on Oct. 16, around mid-day, triggering unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next 24 hours, and then unsettled to active conditions by the end of Oct. 14, due a small coronal hole becoming geoeffective. Current interplanetary conditions are rather quiet, with weak Bz negative excursions, linked to a sector boundary crossing.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 094, basierend auf 05 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 12 Oct 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	007
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	080 - Basierend auf 20 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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