Archiv von Samstag, 12 Oktober 2013 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Oct 12 1128 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
12 Oct 2013	132	010
13 Oct 2013	134	007
14 Oct 2013	134	016

Bulletin

Active conditions are expected to prevail for the next 48 hours, with risks of M class events from NOAA ARs 1861 and 1865. Both regions are magnetically complex enough for such class of flares, but somehow do not show anymore significant evolutions. Many C flares occurred in the past 24 hours related to these two regions. A noticeable one, a C6.2 event, occurred in AR 1865 on Oct. 11, 1228 UT peak time. It was associated with a CME, which is heading essentially eastward, compared to the Earth, and is therefore expected not to be geoeffective. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next 24-36 hours, and then unsettled to active conditions by the second half of Oct. 14, due a small coronal hole becoming geoeffective. Current interplanetary conditions are quiet.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 077, basierend auf 10 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 11 Oct 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	167
10cm Solarflux	129
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	007
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	006
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	092 - Basierend auf 16 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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