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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Oct 15 1244 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
15 Oct 2013	125	016
16 Oct 2013	123	013
17 Oct 2013	122	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been moderate, many C-class flares were detected from AR 1865, 1861 and from an AR behind the east limb (related to a backsided partial halo CME on October 14 at 22:00 UT). NOAA AR 1865 produced an M1.1 flare with peak at 09:00 UT. There are clear dimmings as signs of a CME in SWAP and AIA data but no coronagraph images yet to confirm. Due to the location of this AR (S21 W16), an ejection has strong chances of being Earth-directed. As AR 1861 and 1865 are rotating into the western hemisphere of the Sun, the risk of proton events at Earth has increased, a warning condition has been set. Geomagnetic conditions have ranged from unsettled to active due to the fast speed stream from a coronal hole. The solar wind speed is currently at 500 km/s and the magnetic field intensity around 5 nT. The effect of the coronal hole-related solar wind is expected to fade today, even though more active periods cannot be excluded. The possible arrival (estimated probability of 30%) of the CME from October 13 could raise the geomagnetic conditions up to storm levels late on October 16.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 095, basierend auf 08 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 14 Oct 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	041
AK Wingst	024
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	023
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	096 - Basierend auf 14 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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