Archiv von Mittwoch, 16 Oktober 2013 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Oct 16 1306 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
16 Oct 2013	125	012
17 Oct 2013	125	010
18 Oct 2013	124	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been moderate, many C-class flares were detected from AR 1865, 1861. NOAA AR 1865 produced an M1.3 flare with peak time at 23:36 UT on October 15, no CME was associated with this flare. More M-class flares can be expected from these two active regions. The CME associated with the M1.8 flare from yesterday peaking at 08:38 UT is not expected to arrive to the Earth. Geomagnetic conditions have ranged from quiet to unsettled due to the fast speed stream from a coronal hole. The solar wind speed is currently at 480 km/s and the magnetic field intensity around 4 nT. We expect quiet conditions, except for the possible arrival (estimated probability of 30%) of the CME from October 13 that could raise the geomagnetic conditions up to storm levels late today.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 092, basierend auf 09 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 15 Oct 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	183
10cm Solarflux	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	021
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	020
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	103 - Basierend auf 16 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

Alle Zeiten in UTC

<< Zum Tagesübersicht