Archiv von Donnerstag, 17 Oktober 2013 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Oct 17 1259 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
17 Oct 2013	128	007
18 Oct 2013	125	007
19 Oct 2013	124	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been low, there is potential for moderate conditions in NOAA ARs 1861 and 1865. They have been both producing C class flares, together with 1870 and 1867. AR 1865 produced the strongest flare in the past 24h: a C8.9 with peak at 14:32 UT on October 16. There was a slow faint full halo CME, seen first at 15:48 UT (first seen in LASCO C2). It was related with a C1.8 flare from NOAA AR 1870. The bulk of the material was directed towards the west, with a speed of 300 km/s. An impact with the Earth is possible early on October 21, although geomagnetic conditions are not expected to be greatly affected by this weak event. The solar wind speed at the L1 point is 450 km/s with magnetic fields around 4 nT. Geomagnetic conditions have ranged from quiet to unsettled, quiet conditions are expected for next 48h.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 102, basierend auf 11 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 16 Oct 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	014
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	013
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	095 - Basierend auf 15 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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