Archiv von Dienstag, 5 November 2013 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Nov 05 1252 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
05 Nov 2013	148	011
06 Nov 2013	153	009
07 Nov 2013	155	005

Bulletin

NOAA AR 1890 (no Catania number yet) produced today an M2.5 flare peaking at 08:18 UT, and a C8.0 flare peaking at 11:58 UT. We expect the flaring activity at the M-level, with a small chance for an X-class flare. A CME was associated with the M2.5 flare, first appearing in the LASCO C2 field of view at 08:24 UT. The data currently available do not allow yet to measure the full angular width of the CME. However, STEREO and LASCO data clearly show that the bulk of the material is ejected southward of the ecliptic plane, so we do not expect the arrival of the corresponding interplanetary disturbance at the Earth. The proton flux at energies above 10 MeV measured by GOES exhibited a small increase around 08:40 UT today, probably associated with the M2.5 flare and corresponding CME. The proton flux remains below the threshold, but we issue a warning condition for a proton event. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 360 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 4 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 089, basierend auf 04 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 04 Nov 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	147
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	005
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	091 - Basierend auf 15 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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