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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Dec 06 1253 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
06 Dec 2013	150	007
07 Dec 2013	152	018
08 Dec 2013	153	011

Bulletin

The GOES X-ray background radiation is at the C-level. Several C-class flares were observed during the past 24h, mainly in NOAA AR 1909 and in the returning regions on the east limb. We expect more C-flares, especially from these east limb regions, with a small chance for an M-class flare. A large scale filament eruption was observed on December 04, starting from 11:00 UT. This resulted in a slow CME, mainly oriented towards the north. Another filament erupted in AR 1909 around 21 UT on December 5th. While there is a gap in LASCO data, COR2-A images clearly show the associated slow CME. The activity on the east limb also resulted in several CMEs towards the SE (as seen from LASCO). We expect unsettled to active conditions (up to K=4) on December 7 due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind stream. This coronal hole, which seems to have increased in size in the last 24h, passed the central meridian on December 4. Afterwards, geomagnetic conditions should return to quiet conditions until December 9th when Earth may feel the influence from the ICME associated with the filament eruption in AR 1909. A glancing blow from the east limb CMEs is also possible.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 065, basierend auf 14 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 05 Dec 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	148
10cm Solarflux	150
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	003
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	078 - Basierend auf 12 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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