Archiv von Donnerstag, 2 Januar 2014 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 Jan 02 1245 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
02 Jan 2014	165	022
03 Jan 2014	170	008
04 Jan 2014	170	008

Bulletin

Solar activity was at active levels during the past 24 hours. The strongest event, an M9.9 flare, occurred in NOAA AR 1936 (no Catania numbering yet) and peaked on January 1 at 18:52 UT. The event was associated with a slow CME (estimated projected speed 400 km/s) with first observation in LASCO/C2 at 20:00 UT. This CME might reach Earth on January 5 around 22h UT. New region NOAA AR 1944, located at S05E76, also produced an M1.7 and three C flares. A prominence eruption occurred on January 1 from around 13:00 UT located in the southeast quadrant and seems associated with a CME. This CME mainly is mainly southward directed and is not expected to reach the Earth. More M flares are likely to occur, especially from NOAA ARs 1936 and 1944. There is a moderate chance for an X flare. We maintain the warning condition for proton events. Solar wind data measured by ACE indicate the arrival of a coronal hole fast speed stream. Solar wind speed is about 600 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum of 17 nT, with a Bz- component varying between -13 and +8 nT. Current geomagnetic conditions are unsettled to active (Kp 3 to 4). Unsettled to minor storm conditions (Kp 3 to 5) are expected due to the possible arrival of the CMEs of December 29 and December 31.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 092, basierend auf 08 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 01 Jan 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	160
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	012
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	013
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	084 - Basierend auf 14 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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