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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 Jan 11 1219 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
11 Jan 2014	165	017
12 Jan 2014	155	014
13 Jan 2014	150	005

Bulletin

Flaring activity was at C class level since our last bulletin. A C4.4 flare with a peak on January 11 at 8:35 UTC was the strongest event and originated from Catania sunspot group 98 (NOAA AR 1944). More C flares are expected within the next 48 hours. Chances for M flares are estimated at 40% and for X flares at 10%. The proton event for the >10MeV protons is, strictly speaking, still going on, but the proton flux is expected to be below the event threshold (10 pfu) within the next few hours. The solar wind speed had values between 400 and 450 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum value of 7 nT, with a Bz- component between -4 to +5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet (K=0 to 2). Quiet to active levels (K=0 to 4) are expected within the next few hours due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 098, basierend auf 14 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 10 Jan 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	206
10cm Solarflux	175
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	004
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	103 - Basierend auf 23 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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