Archiv von Sonntag, 12 Januar 2014 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 Jan 12 1245 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
12 Jan 2014	160	016
13 Jan 2014	150	012
14 Jan 2014	150	004

Bulletin

In total 8 C flares occurred during the past 24 hours. A C6.5 and C6.0 flare were the strongest events. Both erupted from Catania sunspot group 98 (NOAA AR 1944). Also Catania sunspot group 9 (NOAA AR 1950) was responsible for two C flares. More C flares are expected within the next 48 hours with a chance of 90%. Chances for M flares are estimated at 40% and for X flares at 10%. We issue a warning condition for a proton event, due to position of NOAA AR 1944 which is rotating towards the west limb. No geo-effective CMEs were observed. The solar wind, measured by ACE, showed signatures of the arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed increased from about 400 km/s to 500 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum of 9 nT and the Bz component varied between +8 and -8 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to active conditions are expected during the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 098, basierend auf 18 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 11 Jan 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	004
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	004
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	102 - Basierend auf 21 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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