Archiv von Dienstag, 18 Februar 2014 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 Feb 18 1324 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
18 Feb 2014	152	007
19 Feb 2014	153	007
20 Feb 2014	155	008

Bulletin

Flaring activity has been in the C-class level in past 24h. NOAA AR 1976 produced the strongest one, a C4.7 flare with peak at 01:33 UT. The complex formed by NOAA ARs 1976, 1977 and 1980 continues to produce C-class flares. NOAA AR 1974 is rotating over the west limb, but has still potential to produce M-class flares. Therefore the warning condition for energetic protons is maintained. A full halo CME erupted at 01:25 UT (first seen by LASCO-C2) as a consequence of a filament eruption in the southeast of the visible solar disc. The bulk of the CME is directed to the southeast, but it can reach the Earth. The calculated speed is 663 km/s, giving an arrival time of February 20, at 20:00 UT (with a ~12h error margin). Geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expected to remain so. There is still a small possibility that the CME from February 13 arrives to the Earth and cause unsettled to active conditions.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 093, basierend auf 07 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 17 Feb 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	131
10cm Solarflux	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	005
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	078 - Basierend auf 14 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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